UPDATE: Oct. 6,family Archives 2016, 1:56 p.m. EDT Based on new forecast information, the National Weather Service is using even starker language to warn people to prepare for Hurricane Matthew. A briefing put out by the National Weather Service forecast office in Jacksonville at midday said:
"Major Hurricane Matthew is still expected to move DANGEROUSLY CLOSE the Florida First Coast and Southeast Georgia Coast Friday through Friday night into Saturday with catastrophic impactsexpected along and near the coast."
"A major hurricane has not impacted this area in 118 years, since October 2nd 1898. There is NO local living memory of the potential of this event. If a direct landfall occurs this will be unlike any hurricane in the modern era."
New storm surge inundation maps produced by the Hurricane Center show the potential for greater than 9 feet of inundation in parts of northeastern Florida, including the Cape Canaveral area. For perspective, this would surpass what most areas in New York and New Jersey saw during Hurricane Sandy in 2012.
Original story below:
The National Weather Service is not mincing words when it comes to the threat that Hurricane Matthew poses to Florida. Up and down the east coast of the state, NWS offices have issued statements warning that the storm, which is supposed to pass within 25 miles of fragile and heavily populated coastline on Thursday night through Friday night, could cause widespread destruction.
The statements issued have their roots in Hurricane Katrina. During that storm, the local NWS office in Slidell, Louisiana was trying to communicate the dire nature of the threat and encourage people to evacuate. Since then, some of the language used for Katrina has been incorporated by other NWS offices.
Here's a portion of the "hurricane local statement" that the NWS office in Jacksonville, Florida issued early Thursday morning (the ALL CAPS style is in the NWS statement, emphasis has been added to one sentence):
WIND:PROTECT AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING WIND HAVING POSSIBLE DEVASTATING IMPACTS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS.
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO STURDY BUILDINGS, SOME WITH COMPLETE ROOF AND WALL FAILURES. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES. DAMAGE GREATLY ACCENTUATED BY LARGE AIRBORNE PROJECTILES. LOCATIONS MAY BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS OR MONTHS. NUMEROUS LARGE TREES SNAPPED OR UPROOTED ALONG WITH FENCES AND ROADWAY SIGNS BLOWN OVER. MANY ROADS IMPASSABLE FROM LARGE DEBRIS, AND MORE WITHIN URBAN OR HEAVILY WOODED PLACES. MANY BRIDGES, CAUSEWAYS, AND ACCESS ROUTES IMPASSABLE. WIDESPREAD POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES.
Regarding the threat of damaging storm surge flooding, the NWS office in Jacksonville, where the storm is likely to be most severe, had this to say in its early morning statement:
PROTECT AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING SURGE HAVING POSSIBLE DEVASTATING IMPACTS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS. POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THIS AREA INCLUDE: - WIDESPREAD DEEP INUNDATION, WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING GREATLY ACCENTUATED BY POWERFUL BATTERING WAVES. STORM SURGE MAY EXTEND FAR INLAND IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND COASTAL GEORGIA AND YOU MAY STILL EXPERIENCE LIFE THREATENING FLOODING EVEN THOUGH YOU ARE NOT WITHIN SIGHT OF WATER. - IF YOU ARE ASKED TO EVACUATE IT IS BECAUSE YOU ARE IN AN AREA THAT HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED AS BEING SUBJECT TO EXTREME STORM SURGE, PLEASE HEED THE ADVICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS! - STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS, WITH MANY WASHING AWAY. DAMAGE GREATLY COMPOUNDED FROM CONSIDERABLE FLOATING DEBRIS. - LOCATIONS MAY BE UNINHABITABLE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD.- NEAR-SHORE ESCAPE ROUTES AND SECONDARY ROADS WASHED OUT OR SEVERELY FLOODED. FLOOD CONTROL SYSTEMS, SEAWALLS AND OTHER BARRIERS MAY BECOME STRESSED OR UNDERMINED.
In the Jacksonville area, the NWS is anticipating as much as 6 to 9 feet of inundation, which means water on otherwise typically dry land at the time of high tide.
"Remember Storm Surge graphics depict STILL water heights, as though you were in your swimming pool (think neck deep in the pool)," the NWS said in a briefing issued Thursday morning. "Unlike your pool a hurricane has large wave action on top of the surge and when those waves impact the beaches and dunes that water 'runs up' or put another way it moves inland a considerable distance.
"So we are looking at water 4 to 8 feet deep with large waves on it! Imagine [a] 6-foot[-tall] person, water up to top of [their] head, hit by 20 foot breakers!"
The NWS is using such dire language in part because this is the size and scope of the storm threat as indicated by the latest forecasts, and also because the agency may think that such communication products may be effective at spurring stragglers to evacuate from vulnerable areas.
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As of Thursday morning, the hurricane was forecast to make landfall or come close to making landfall along the state's eastern coast between Thursday night and Friday night as a Category 4 storm while moving northward.
This track has little to no historical precedent, and the area of Florida that will be most severely affected is unfamiliar with such severe hurricane impacts, since most of the more recent storms -- such as the blitz of four powerful hurricanes that struck in 2005 -- hit other parts of the peninsula.
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